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[强烈推荐-A评级]天坛生物(600161)点评:血制品行业转变期,短期调整长期向好

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发表于 2017-7-17 17:31:06 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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  预计血制品全年归母净利润4.5亿元左右。对于全年业绩预期,我们预测成都蓉生全年净利润5.2亿元(此前预测是5.5亿元),贡献归母净利润4.7亿元;预测贵州中泰贡献亏损1000万元左右,即我们预计血制品全年的归母净利润是4.6亿元,同比增长14%左右。


[强烈推荐-A评级]天坛生物(600161)点评:血制品行业转变期,短期调整长期向好


事件:天坛生物公告2017 中报预告,2017年净利润(追溯调整后)同比增长849%左右。净利润高速增长主要是:转让疫苗业务,实现投资收益7.82亿元(税前)。




  盈利预测与评级。不考虑非经常性损益, 我们预测2017~2019 EPS 分别为0.69/1.06/1.35元,其中2017年盈利预测略微下调4%,但维持2018 和2019年盈利预测,主要原因是,一方面我们看好明年血制品行业在静丙带动下开始复苏,另一方面明年天坛生物完成重组,内部整合也有提效空间。我们继续看好天坛生物央企资源优势和研发管线,维持“强烈推荐-A”评级。




□ .吴.斌  .招.商.证.券.股.份.有.限.公.司


[强烈推荐-A评级]天坛生物(600161)点评:血制品行业转变期,短期调整长期向好


  血制品行业目前处于从白蛋白驱动向静丙驱动的转变时期,短期虽然行业有所调整,但长期仍然向好。我们仍然维持对行业的判断:国内血制品行业已经从白蛋白驱动的时代进入静丙驱动的时代,静丙潜在需求空间非常大,但是过去血制品企业的学术推广没跟上,导致静丙短期内也有一些滞销;今年已经有许多血制品企业开始组建销售队伍,我们估计从明年开始,静丙有望逐渐放量,长期来看,静丙的需求将继续推动血制品企业的快速增长。而且,行业的竞争加剧也有助于加快内部整合,小企业将降低估值预期,龙头企业的并购将更加容易。




[强烈推荐-A评级]天坛生物(600161)点评:血制品行业转变期 短期调整长期向好




[强烈推荐-A评级]天坛生物(600161)点评:血制品行业转变期,短期调整长期向好


  血制品业务单季度增速放缓。转让疫苗业务的投资收入和疫苗业务1~4月的亏损4000万元左右,都可以视为非经常损益。公司血制品业务上半年收入6.9亿元,追溯调整后同比增长7.81%,血制品归母净利润2.19亿元,追溯调整后同比增长15.28%。单季度来看,第2 季度血制品业务收入3.4亿元,同比略增3.9%,第2 季度血制品归母净利润9300万元,同比环比都略有下降,我们估计今年贵州中泰亏损数百万元,这意味着成都蓉生的归母净利润约1亿元,仅略低于我们之前预计的1.08亿元(我们此前预计成都蓉生第2季度净利润1.2亿元,按90%持股比例,归母净利润在1.08亿元)。




  风险提示:血制品行业的白蛋白和静丙价格大幅波动风险;政策风险。




时间:2017年07月17日 09:00:53 中财网







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